Uncertainty and models
Funnel plot (meta-analysis)
Plots study effects against precision or standard error to inspect small-study patterns.
- Plot
- Model diagnostics
- Small-study-effect assessment
What it answers
Are smaller or less precise studies distributed asymmetrically?
- Shape
- Effect points in a funnel-shaped envelope
- What it shows
- Small-study patterns and outliers.
Example
The question
Which stores have unusual return rates, allowing for their size?
Return rate against number of orders, 40 stores, with expected range (funnel plot)
Illustrative data. It belongs to no company.
When to use it
Use it when
Exploratory meta-analysis diagnostics.
Avoid it when
Very few studies or treating asymmetry as proof of publication bias.
How to read it
Read effect against standard error/precision and interpret the envelope convention.
Note
Asymmetry alone does not prove publication bias.
The data you need
- Layout
- Long table
- Fields
- StudyID: text; EffectEstimate: number; StandardError: positive number
- One row is
- One study effect and its standard error. What is the grain?
- Rules
- Use a common effect scale and define the vertical axis as standard error or a specified precision transformation.
- Optional
- SampleSize can support alternative funnel conventions but is not interchangeable with standard error.
- Preparation
- Fit or obtain a suitable model/estimate first, then pair estimates with correctly labelled bounds or standard errors. Preserve coverage and scale information.
- Units
- X uses a common effect scale; Y uses standard error or specified precision. No business stage-conversion denominator.
Worked example
StudyA effect 0.20, SE0.05; B0.10, SE0.12. A ismore precise. Two studies are far too few to assess funnel asymmetry.
| StudyID | EffectEstimate | StandardError |
|---|---|---|
| A | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| B | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| C | 0.25 | 0.08 |
