Strategic and Commercial Decisions: Options, Trade-offs and Priorities

Slide 1 of 4

Start with a choice

Bram needs a decision, not a slogan about growth.

The decision must say what action is being considered and what happens without it.

Slide 2 of 4

Give it an owner

A decision statement names the owner, action, review date and permission needed.

A recommendation is not the same as permission to spend.

Slide 3 of 4

Authority has boundaries

A policy may control spending without approving the whole strategy.

Confirm the current policy status and the right approving body.

Slide 4 of 4

Quick check

Name who prepares the recommendation and who must approve it.

Slide 1 of 4

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 4

Keep the comparison open

An option is an action that can genuinely be chosen.

Without a do-nothing choice, the proposal sets its own comparison.

Slide 3 of 4

Look at current use

The webshop accounts for 2,023 of 7,235 orders, or 28.0%.

This is recorded order channel, not new-country demand.

Slide 4 of 4

Quick check

Compare expansion, a staged step, improvements and no change.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Define the measures

A criterion is one thing every option will be judged against.

Use the same period, unit and definition for every choice.

Slide 3 of 5

Fix weights before scores

A weight says how much each criterion matters before anyone sees the totals.

Practice weights total 100%; none is a company-approved preference.

Slide 4 of 5

Define must haves

A must-have is a condition an option must meet, even with a high score.

Specify how each must-have will be checked before scoring.

Slide 5 of 5

Quick check

Use a shared comparison window and meaning for each measure.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Commit before the reveal

A late criterion may reward the option someone already prefers.

Choose before seeing the worked example.

Slide 3 of 5

Spot the tailored rule

A criterion written for a favourite can tilt the comparison.

Check relevance to the decision, not just to one sponsor option.

Slide 4 of 5

Handle new evidence fairly

An important new criterion may be added only with an open record and a fresh comparison.

Record the change before using updated results.

Slide 5 of 5

Quick check

Disclose a late measure and explain its relevance.

Slide 1 of 4

Begin with a source

A score needs an observable reason, not somebody’s confidence.

Strength measures how well the evidence fits the question.

Slide 2 of 4

Rate the support

Mark strong for direct records, moderate for relevant but limited evidence, and weak for anecdotes.

A direct record can be strong for volume without proving a cause.

Slide 3 of 4

Keep the claim narrow

In September 2025, the records show 210 webshop orders.

The source records channel and month, not why each customer ordered.

Slide 4 of 4

Quick check

Give each score an evidence source and an honest strength label.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Pick the starting point

September had 210 webshop orders after 137 in August.

The gap is real; the cause has not been established.

Slide 3 of 5

Compare a fairer window

February to May averaged 216.25 webshop orders per month.

August sits below this earlier four-month monthly average.

Slide 4 of 5

Check competing explanations

A coinciding campaign means another event overlapped the period.

An overlap is not evidence that either campaign caused the order count.

Slide 5 of 5

Quick check

Recalculate the sponsor comparison from the source.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Check eligibility first

A must-have is tested before adding scores.

Practice figures only; these are not observed Raket Parts performance scores.

Slide 3 of 5

High totals can fail

An option that fails a gate is not eligible, even with the best points.

Test affordability and permission the same way where relevant.

Slide 4 of 5

Record what is missing

An unknown must-have is unconfirmed, not silently passed.

Ask for the necessary evidence instead of inventing a positive score.

Slide 5 of 5

Quick check

Test mandatory conditions before comparing weighted totals.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Predict before calculating

A ranking can change when the agreed weights change.

Commit before seeing the practice example.

Slide 3 of 5

Try close choices

A weight test asks whether another reasonable emphasis changes the preferred option.

These are invented practice scores, not findings about Raket Parts.

Slide 4 of 5

Find the turning point

At practice weights of 55% commercial and 45% risk, extension narrowly leads.

At 50% on each, the totals tie; below 50% commercial, the staged trial leads.

Slide 5 of 5

Quick check

Show how plausible weight changes affect the leader.

Slide 1 of 4

Big is not relevant

The biggest published-style estimate may cover the wrong market.

These market report figures are invented practice material.

Slide 2 of 4

Read the boundaries

A market scope says which customers, places, products and period are included.

Both reports and their figures are practice material, not external market evidence.

Slide 3 of 4

Match like with like

Only include a figure whose definition matches the decision.

Neither practice report is verified evidence for Raket Parts.

Slide 4 of 4

Quick check

Check who, where, what and when an estimate covers.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Start with known customers

The customer list contains 313 universities.

The customer list and the invoiced customer count measure different groups.

Slide 3 of 5

Use a matching period

From January to September 2025, 304 university customers had invoices.

Count each distinct invoiced customer once, not every invoice line.

Slide 4 of 5

Divide spend fairly

Those university customers had €10,287,589.49 in net invoices during that period.

Spend per invoiced customer uses only customers active in the same window.

Slide 5 of 5

Quick check

Count customer records separately from customers with invoices.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Transfer is an assumption

A bottom-up estimate starts with possible customers and likely spend per customer.

The estimate is a practice scenario, not a measured forecast.

Slide 3 of 5

Make the downside visible

Use a low case when fewer buyers spend less than today’s customers.

Practice inputs are assumed; the historical spend reference is measured.

Slide 4 of 5

Make the upside visible

Use a high case to show what depends on stronger assumptions.

Both scenarios use the January-to-September spend period.

Slide 5 of 5

Quick check

Treat new-market customers and spend multipliers as assumptions.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Reconcile two routes

A top-down estimate starts with an overall market amount and narrows it to the decision.

All figures in this top-down example are practice material, not published market measurements.

Slide 3 of 5

Subtract any overlap

Avoid double counting when the same buyers appear in two parts of a market estimate.

These are hypothetical amounts after removing the same €200,000 overlap.

Slide 4 of 5

Put estimates side by side

A range is a safer starting position than a single certain number.

The numerical agreement does not validate invented market reports.

Slide 5 of 5

Quick check

Remove overlapping buyers before interpreting the top-down pool.

Slide 1 of 4

Who is fastest?

Competitor A's press release says it is the fastest supplier of catalogue parts.

Bram is drafting a speed map for the board.

Slide 2 of 4

The dated comparison

Measured on the same basket, Competitor A quotes 13 days, not 8.

On the same basket Competitor C quoted 11 days, though back in 2024.

Slide 3 of 4

Three kinds of evidence

A self-claim is what a competitor says about itself.

Slide 4 of 4

Which entry holds up?

A position needs a date, a basket and a source.

Slide 1 of 4

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 4

Keep the evidence log

An evidence log keeps the source, date, type and basket of every entry.

Slide 3 of 4

Old evidence

An age flag marks entries older than 12 months on the review date.

Practice rule. Review date 31st October 2025.

Slide 4 of 4

Two separate flags

Age and source type are separate checks.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Pick two axes

A position map places competitors on two dimensions that matter to the decision.

For catalogue parts: quoted days and price level.

Slide 3 of 5

Our own catalogue quotes

Raket Parts quotes its 350 catalogue part lines at 7.03 days on average.

Real quote lines. The all-lines average mixes in build-to-order work.

Slide 4 of 5

The map as a table

Each point carries its evidence and a confidence mark.

Raket Parts' catalogue quotes average €283.61 a unit.

Slide 5 of 5

Same basket?

Place every point on the same kind of work.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

A map has limits

Quoted days and price levels say nothing about margins, capacity or plans.

Slide 3 of 5

Quoted is not delivered

Even our own quote is a promise. Delivery is a separate record.

Raket Parts catalogue order lines with a confirmed outcome.

Slide 4 of 5

One clue only

A new entrant known only from a job advert stays unplaced.

Practice entry, 2025-10-06.

Slide 5 of 5

What is out of reach?

Say what the map cannot show next to what it does.

Slide 1 of 4

Commit before scoring

The lowest average cost does not automatically make a contract safe.

Mira must decide what to do about uncertain titanium demand.

Slide 2 of 4

Ground it in records

Raket Parts buys titanium bar from one supplier: 81 purchase orders to X-SUP-001.

X-SUP-002 is also listed for titanium bar but has no orders.

Slide 3 of 4

Compare the exposure

A loss limit is the maximum outcome the decision holder may accept without escalation.

The figures below are practice amounts, not Raket Parts contract terms.

Slide 4 of 4

Which conclusion holds?

A breach needs a condition or escalation even if the average looks attractive.

Mira records the limit and who can decide.

Slide 1 of 4

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 4

Weight each possible demand

An expected cost blends scenario costs using the share assigned to each outcome.

Weights and costs are practice figures, scaled down; Raket Parts' real titanium spend is far larger.

Slide 3 of 4

Work both options

The volume agreement costs less on average in this practice comparison.

Multiply each practice cost by its scenario share, then add the three results.

Slide 4 of 4

Which figure rules it out?

The worst case and the weighted average answer different questions.

A cheaper expected result can still exceed the practice limit.

Slide 1 of 5

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 5

Reversal has a price

Reversibility means what it would cost to stop or change an option later.

Exit fees are practice assumptions, not existing supplier terms.

Slide 3 of 5

Waiting is a choice

Waiting for more evidence may have a delay cost.

This practice exercise assumes six months of delay costs €180,000.

Slide 4 of 5

Who may approve what

Above €500,000, no recorded purchase approval limit applies: the decision goes up.

X-FIN-01 is a proposed rule, not yet approved.

Slide 5 of 5

What does Mira do?

Escalate a choice above your limit; never split it to fit.

Slide 1 of 4

Warm-up

Two quick questions from earlier.

Answer both to continue.

Slide 2 of 4

Write for a decision maker

A decision record states the option, uncertainty, exposure and who owns the next action.

Teun checks the amounts. Mira owns the recommendation.

Slide 3 of 4

Set a visible trigger

A review trigger must be readable in a named report on a date. Check today's value first.

Today's value: 133.0 days, from 1 October order. Above 120 since July, so pick 150 (practice trigger).

Slide 4 of 4

Which trigger works?

An observable trigger needs a measure, threshold, reporting period and review owner.

Avoid vague instructions such as review when demand feels uncertain.